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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Thursday 2023-12-21 · 20:15 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

NO
45.2%
LA
54.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NO offense: +0.015 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.010 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 23
–
LA 24
Projected margin: LA by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

NO

Isaiah Foskey DE Out Quadricep
Lonnie Johnson CB Out Knee
Ryan Ramczyk T Out Knee
Payton Turner DE Out Toe
Kendre Miller RB Questionable Ankle

LA

Tre'Vius Tomlinson CB Out Hamstring
Joseph Noteboom T Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 22
–
LA 30

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:32 TD LA (2:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-P.Nacua for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – LA 6
  • Q2 10:26 FG LA (10:26) 8-L.Havrisik 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans. NO 0 – LA 10
  • Q2 02:34 TD NO (2:34) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – LA 10
  • Q2 00:25 TD LA (:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 15-D.Robinson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – LA 16
  • Q3 11:14 FG LA (11:14) 8-L.Havrisik 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans. NO 7 – LA 20
  • Q3 05:47 TD LA (5:47) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – LA 26
  • Q4 12:47 FG LA (12:47) 8-L.Havrisik 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans. NO 7 – LA 30
  • Q4 06:38 TD NO (6:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – LA 30
  • Q4 03:59 TD NO (3:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 17-A.Perry for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 20 – LA 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 13 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 68%

    (10:31) 39-L.Hedley punts 32 yards to LA 5, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 99%

    (2:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-P.Nacua for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 63%

    (13:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LA 48 for -9 yards (91-K.Turner).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 99%

    (10:26) 8-L.Havrisik 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 20 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (8:31) 39-L.Hedley punts 39 yards to LA 32, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-52-D.Jackson.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 84%

    (3:57) 8-L.Havrisik 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:48) 42-E.Evans punts 38 yards to NO 35, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 56%

    (1:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 83-J.Johnson.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 2 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (11:14) 8-L.Havrisik 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 7 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 74%

    (2:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 83-J.Johnson to LA 31 for 3 yards (43-J.Johnson).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 96%

    (12:47) 8-L.Havrisik 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 16 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:40) 42-E.Evans punts 8 yards to LA 35, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds. NO-48-J.Gray deflects punt.