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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 34

New Orleans Saints 7 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(2:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 83-J.Johnson to LA 31 for 3 yards (43-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.07 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model