4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 28

Los Angeles Rams 10 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 8-L.Havrisik 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.28 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP