4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 13

Los Angeles Rams 27 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 8-L.Havrisik 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +2.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.05 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 13, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP