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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 2

Los Angeles Rams 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 8-L.Havrisik 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +3.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.85 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 2, worth +0.69 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP