4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 42

New Orleans Saints 7 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 83-J.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.11 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 42, worth -1.82 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model