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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 37

New Orleans Saints 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 39-L.Hedley punts 32 yards to LA 5, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.27 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 37, worth -2.27 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP