Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 16 at the 73

Los Angeles Rams 30 – New Orleans Saints 14

(4:40) 42-E.Evans punts 8 yards to LA 35, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds. NO-48-J.Gray deflects punt.

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +0.82 EP
71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 73, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model