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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Chris Tabor
Sunday 2023-12-24 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

GB
61.0%
CAR
39.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.206 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Bryce Young (CAR): -0.292 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • GB offense: +0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 22
–
CAR 19
Projected margin: GB by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

GB

De'Vondre Campbell LB Out Neck
Luke Musgrave TE Out kidney
Darnell Savage S Out Shoulder
Christian Watson WR Doubtful Hamstring
Luke Tenuta T Doubtful Ankle
Emanuel Wilson RB Doubtful Shoulder
Jayden Reed WR Questionable Toe
Jaire Alexander CB Questionable Shoulder
A.J. Dillon RB Questionable Thumb
Rudy Ford S Questionable Back
Robert Rochell CB Questionable Neck
Tedarrell Slaton DT Questionable Knee
Dontayvion Wicks WR Questionable Ankle

CAR

Claudin Cherelus LB Questionable Knee
Ian Thomas TE Questionable Ankle
Sam Franklin S Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 33
–
CAR 30

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:34 TD GB (7:34) 70-R.Newman reported in as eligible. 28-A.Dillon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – CAR 0
  • Q1 05:29 FG CAR (5:29) 4-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. Penalty on GB-95-D.Wyatt, Defensive Offside, declined. GB 7 – CAR 3
  • Q2 15:00 TD GB (15:00) 10-J.Love up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – CAR 3
  • Q2 10:38 TD CAR (10:38) 11-I.Smith-Marsette right end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – CAR 9
  • Q2 07:56 FG GB (7:56) 17-A.Carlson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 16 – CAR 10
  • Q2 00:57 TD GB (:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 13-D.Wicks for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 22 – CAR 10
  • Q3 05:14 TD CAR (5:14) 30-C.Hubbard left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 23 – CAR 16
  • Q4 15:00 TD GB (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 29 – CAR 16
  • Q4 07:18 TD CAR (7:18) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 17-D.Chark for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Wyatt]. GB 30 – CAR 22
  • Q4 04:12 TD CAR (4:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 17-D.Chark for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 30 – CAR 28
  • Q4 00:22 FG GB (:22) 17-A.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 33 – CAR 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:38) 10-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to GB 11, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-K.Nixon pushed ob at GB 20 for 9 yards (21-J.Chinn).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 10 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 73%

    (5:29) 4-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. Penalty on GB-95-D.Wyatt, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 7 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 71%

    (7:56) 17-A.Carlson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 65%

    (4:15) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to GB 40 for -2 yards (58-I.McDuffie, 90-L.Van Ness).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (:29) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to GB 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:43) 19-D.Whelan punts 54 yards to CAR 28, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-20-R.Ford.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 65%

    (8:40) 9-B.Young up the middle to GB 36 for 2 yards (7-Q.Walker; 25-K.Nixon).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:51) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to GB 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-K.Nixon to GB 11 for -3 yards (42-S.Franklin).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 9 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:46) 19-D.Whelan punts 48 yards to CAR 40, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (5:55) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to CAR 30, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 11 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (:22) 17-A.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.