Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 88

Green Bay Packers 30 – Carolina Panthers 16

(11:46) 19-D.Whelan punts 48 yards to CAR 40, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.81 EP
61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model