Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 67

Carolina Panthers 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(11:38) 10-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to GB 11, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-K.Nixon pushed ob at GB 20 for 9 yards (21-J.Chinn).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.66 EP
66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model