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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 38

Carolina Panthers 10 – Green Bay Packers 23

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 9-B.Young up the middle to GB 36 for 2 yards (7-Q.Walker; 25-K.Nixon).

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.67 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model