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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 38

Carolina Panthers 10 – Green Bay Packers 16

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to GB 40 for -2 yards (58-I.McDuffie, 90-L.Van Ness).

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.64 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model