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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 14

Green Bay Packers 30 – Carolina Panthers 30

What Actually Happened

(:22) 17-A.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +4.22 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model