Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 62

Carolina Panthers 16 – Green Bay Packers 30

(12:51) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to GB 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-K.Nixon to GB 11 for -3 yards (42-S.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.58 EP
67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model