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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 10 – Green Bay Packers 23

What Actually Happened

(:29) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to GB 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.77 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 68, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model