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Buffalo Bills

9-6 HC Sean McDermott
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Los Angeles Chargers

5-10 HC Giff Smith
Saturday 2023-12-23 · 20:00 ET SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread -13.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

BUF
72.8%
LAC
27.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to BUF: Easton Stick (LAC) -0.279 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.166 EPA/dropback
  • BUF offense: +0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • LAC defense: +0.018 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • BUF defense: -0.033 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • LAC offense: -0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • LAC on 3 more days rest than BUF

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

BUF 25 18–32
–
LAC 18 11–25
Projected margin: BUF by 7 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 16

BUF

Justin Shorter WR Out Hamstring
Micah Hyde S Out Neck
Kaiir Elam CB Questionable Ankle
A.J. Epenesa DE Questionable Rib
Ty Johnson RB Questionable Shoulder
DaQuan Jones DT Questionable Pectoral

LAC

Keenan Allen WR Out Heel
Joey Bosa DE Out Foot
Tanner Muse LB Doubtful Knee
Deane Leonard CB Doubtful Heel
Essang Bassey CB Questionable Concussion
Nick Vannett TE Questionable Back
Nicholas Williams DT Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 24
–
LAC 22

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:35 FG LAC (6:35) 11-C.Dicker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. BUF 0 – LAC 3
  • Q2 13:54 TD LAC (13:54) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – LAC 9
  • Q2 09:12 TD BUF (9:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 13-G.Davis for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – LAC 10
  • Q2 00:41 TD BUF (:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – LAC 10
  • Q3 07:26 FG LAC (7:26) 11-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. BUF 14 – LAC 13
  • Q3 01:32 TD BUF (1:32) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 20 – LAC 13
  • Q4 12:40 FG LAC (12:40) 11-C.Dicker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. BUF 21 – LAC 16
  • Q4 07:23 FG LAC (7:23) 11-C.Dicker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. BUF 21 – LAC 19
  • Q4 05:30 FG LAC (5:30) 11-C.Dicker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. BUF 21 – LAC 22
  • Q4 00:31 FG BUF (:31) 2-T.Bass 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. Penalty on LAC-26-A.Samuel, Defensive Offside, declined. BUF 24 – LAC 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:20) 8-S.Martin punts 51 yards to LAC 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%

    (6:35) 11-C.Dicker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 47%

    (3:37) 8-S.Martin punts 44 yards to LAC 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LAC 4th & 13 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:21) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to BUF 30, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-D.Harty to BUF 33 for 3 yards (24-A.Finley; 36-J.Taylor). FUMBLES (24-A.Finley), RECOVERED by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga at BUF 27. Penalty on BUF-3-D.Hamlin, Offensive Holding, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:52) 8-S.Martin punts 56 yards to LAC 4, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (9:24) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to BUF 40, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-D.Harty ran ob at BUF 43 for 3 yards (31-N.Niemann).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LAC 4th & 18 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 35%

    (12:53) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to BUF 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LAC 4th & 15 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 91%

    (7:26) 11-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 83%

    (12:40) 11-C.Dicker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 12 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 85%

    (7:23) 11-C.Dicker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 13 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 72%

    (5:30) 11-C.Dicker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (:31) 2-T.Bass 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. Penalty on LAC-26-A.Samuel, Defensive Offside, declined.

    See the full breakdown →