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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 29

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 11-C.Dicker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.42 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model