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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 22

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 11-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.65 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model