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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 2

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(6:35) 11-C.Dicker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +3.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.45 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 2, worth +0.79 EP
KICK +2.44 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP