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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 35

Los Angeles Chargers 19 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 11-C.Dicker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.24 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 35, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 45, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model