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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 59

Buffalo Bills 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 8-S.Martin punts 44 yards to LAC 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.36 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP