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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 60

Buffalo Bills 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 8-S.Martin punts 56 yards to LAC 4, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.69 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 19, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model