Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 87

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(:21) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to BUF 30, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-D.Harty to BUF 33 for 3 yards (24-A.Finley; 36-J.Taylor). FUMBLES (24-A.Finley), RECOVERED by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga at BUF 27. Penalty on BUF-3-D.Hamlin, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.31 EP
68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 87, worth -4.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model