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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2023-12-17 · 16:25 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

DAL
56.1%
BUF
43.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.225 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • DAL defense: -0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.037 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.188 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.191 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DAL 25
–
BUF 23
Projected margin: DAL by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

DAL

Johnathan Hankins DT Out Knee
Brandin Cooks WR Questionable Not injury related - resting player
Stephon Gilmore CB Questionable Not injury related - resting player
Viliami Fehoko DE Questionable Knee
Matt Waletzko T Questionable Shoulder
Malik Hooker S Questionable Ankle
Jalen Tolbert WR Questionable Illness

BUF

A.J. Epenesa DE Out Rib
Micah Hyde S Out Neck
Kaiir Elam CB Questionable Ankle
Justin Shorter WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 10
–
BUF 31

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:18 TD BUF (8:18) 28-L.Murray left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – BUF 6
  • Q2 12:57 TD BUF (12:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 4-J.Cook for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – BUF 13
  • Q2 07:16 FG DAL (7:16) 17-B.Aubrey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 3 – BUF 14
  • Q2 01:39 TD BUF (1:39) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 3 – BUF 20
  • Q3 02:39 FG BUF (2:39) 2-T.Bass 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. DAL 3 – BUF 24
  • Q4 12:36 TD BUF (12:36) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right guard for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 3 – BUF 30
  • Q4 02:53 TD DAL (2:53) (No Huddle) 88-C.Lamb right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – BUF 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (3:11) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to DAL 34, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 10 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:45) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to BUF 14, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 95%

    (7:16) 17-B.Aubrey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:34) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to BUF 5, Center-44-T.Sieg, downed by DAL-25-N.Wright.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:11) 5-B.Anger punts 62 yards to BUF 9, Center-44-T.Sieg. 11-D.Harty to BUF 30 for 21 yards (34-M.Davis).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (2:39) 2-T.Bass 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 18 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:51) 5-B.Anger punts 62 yards to BUF 22, Center-44-T.Sieg. 11-D.Harty to BUF 33 for 11 yards (54-S.Williams, 99-C.Golston).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 24%

    (10:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 3-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 47-C.Benford at BUF 40. 47-C.Benford to BUF 48 for 8 yards (73-Tyl.Smith).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 30%

    (8:26) 8-S.Martin punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 81%

    (4:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to BUF 22 for 6 yards (42-D.Williams).