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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 28

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Buffalo Bills 31

What Actually Happened

(4:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to BUF 22 for 6 yards (42-D.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.19 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 28, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 38, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model