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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 52

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Buffalo Bills 31

What Actually Happened

(10:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 3-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 47-C.Benford at BUF 40. 47-C.Benford to BUF 48 for 8 yards (73-Tyl.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.91 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 52, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model