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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 14

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 17-B.Aubrey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.14 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 14, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP