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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 80

Buffalo Bills 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to DAL 34, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.18 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 80, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP