Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 71

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Buffalo Bills 21

(11:11) 5-B.Anger punts 62 yards to BUF 9, Center-44-T.Sieg. 11-D.Harty to BUF 30 for 21 yards (34-M.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.98 EP
62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 71, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model