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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 49

Buffalo Bills 31 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 8-S.Martin punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.79 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model