Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 66

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

(2:45) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to BUF 14, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.05 EP
62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model