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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2023-12-10 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

JAX
49.9%
CLE
50.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CLE defense: -0.115 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Joe Flacco (CLE): -0.088 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX offense: +0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 21
–
CLE 22
Projected margin: CLE by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

JAX

Tre Herndon CB Out Concussion
Walker Little T Out Hamstring
Brenton Strange TE Out Foot
Christian Braswell CB Out Hamstring
Tyson Campbell CB Questionable Quadricep
Travis Etienne RB Questionable Ribs
Folorunso Fatukasi DT Questionable Heel
D'Ernest Johnson RB Questionable Knee
Trevor Lawrence QB Questionable Ankle

CLE

Dawand Jones T Questionable Knee
Cameron Mitchell CB Questionable Hamstring
Wyatt Teller G Questionable Calf
Amari Cooper WR Questionable Concussion
Denzel Ward CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 27
–
CLE 31

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:45 TD CLE (11:45) 53-N.Harris and 66-J.Hudson reported in as eligible. 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 85-D.Njoku for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – CLE 6
  • Q2 13:46 TD CLE (13:46) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 85-D.Njoku for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – CLE 13
  • Q2 06:18 TD JAX (6:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 17-E.Engram for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – CLE 14
  • Q3 09:46 TD CLE (9:46) (Shotgun) 68-M.Dunn and 69-L.Watson reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 27-K.Hunt. 27-K.Hunt left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – CLE 20
  • Q3 05:02 TD JAX (5:02) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 1-T.Etienne. 1-T.Etienne right guard to CLE 1 for no gain (33-R.Hickman, 22-G.Delpit). CLE-29-C.Mitchell was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Jacksonville challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) Direct snap to 1-T.Etienne. 1-T.Etienne right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE-29-C.Mitchell was injured during the play. His return is Probable. JAX 13 – CLE 21
  • Q4 12:42 TD CLE (12:42) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle to 18-Dav.Bell for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [42-A.Wingard]. JAX 14 – CLE 27
  • Q4 08:57 TD JAX (8:57) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 11-P.Washington for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 20 – CLE 28
  • Q4 03:15 FG CLE (3:15) 7-D.Hopkins 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. JAX 21 – CLE 31
  • Q4 01:37 TD JAX (1:37) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 17-E.Engram for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 27 – CLE 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (9:29) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to CLE 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-J.Proche to CLE 31 for 11 yards (46-R.Matiscik).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:58) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to JAX 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-P.Washington pushed ob at JAX 16 for 6 yards (22-G.Delpit).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 41%

    (5:38) 9-L.Cooke punts 34 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 10 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:33) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 72 yards to JAX 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-P.Washington to JAX 18 for no gain (20-P.Strong).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:02) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to CLE 28, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 9 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:11) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to JAX 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 38 for 26 yards (51-J.Kunaszyk). PENALTY on JAX-14-E.Cooks, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 32.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 10 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:11) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to CLE 28, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 17 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 38%

    (7:11) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to CLE 5, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:14) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to JAX 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-P.Washington to JAX 44 for 26 yards (44-S.Takitaki).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:20) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to JAX 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-P.Washington to JAX 23 for 11 yards (47-C.Hughlett; 44-S.Takitaki).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:54) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to CLE 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (:15) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 34 yards to JAX 21, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-37-Da.Bell.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 96%

    (11:49) 15-J.Flacco up the middle to JAX 11 for 2 yards (96-A.Gotsis).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:49) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to CLE 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-J.Proche to CLE 33 for 8 yards (46-R.Matiscik).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 41%

    (:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to JAX 6, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 49%

    (12:42) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle to 18-Dav.Bell for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [42-A.Wingard].

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 31%

    (6:08) 68-M.Dunn and 69-L.Watson reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt right tackle to JAX 45 for 3 yards (42-A.Wingard).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 42 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 46%

    (4:31) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 62 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (3:34) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 7-Z.Jones (33-R.Hickman) [94-D.Tomlinson].

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 37 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 60%

    (3:15) 7-D.Hopkins 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.