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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 41

Cleveland Browns 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(12:42) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle to 18-Dav.Bell for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [42-A.Wingard].

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.38 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 41, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model