Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to JAX 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 38 for 26 yards (51-J.Kunaszyk). PENALTY on JAX-14-E.Cooks, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 32.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.32 EP
64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model