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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 55

Cleveland Browns 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(:15) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 34 yards to JAX 21, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-37-Da.Bell.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.78 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 55, worth -1.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 16, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model