4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 75

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Cleveland Browns 21

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to CLE 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-J.Proche to CLE 33 for 8 yards (46-R.Matiscik).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 32, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model