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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 37

Cleveland Browns 28 – Jacksonville Jaguars 21

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 7-D.Hopkins 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.04 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model