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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Cleveland Browns
4th & 1 at the 13
Cleveland Browns 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7
What Actually Happened
(11:49) 15-J.Flacco up the middle to JAX 11 for 2 yards (96-A.Gotsis).
The Three Options
GO
+3.30 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.17 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 13, worth -0.14 EP
KICK
+1.97 EP
- 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 23, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT
+0.03 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
