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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 62

Jacksonville Jaguars 21 – Cleveland Browns 28

What Actually Happened

(3:34) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 7-Z.Jones (33-R.Hickman) [94-D.Tomlinson].

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.42 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 62, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model