4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
CLE Away

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2023-12-03 · 16:25 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

CLE
34.0%
LA
66.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.142 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CLE defense: -0.140 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Joe Flacco (CLE): -0.072 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CLE starting Joe Flacco in place of Dorian Thompson-Robinson)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CLE 20
–
LA 25
Projected margin: LA by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

CLE

Marquise Goodwin WR Out Concussion
Dorian Thompson-Robinson QB Out Concussion
Denzel Ward CB Out Shoulder
James Hudson T Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Nick Harris C Questionable Knee

LA

Quentin Lake S Out Hamstring
Michael Hoecht LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 19
–
LA 36

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:26 TD CLE (10:26) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 34-J.Ford for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-0-B.Young, Defensive Offside, declined. CLE 6 – LA 0
  • Q1 06:33 FG LA (6:33) 8-L.Havrisik 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. CLE 7 – LA 3
  • Q1 04:08 TD LA (4:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 17-P.Nacua for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – LA 9
  • Q2 02:11 FG CLE (2:11) 7-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 10 – LA 10
  • Q2 00:05 FG LA (:05) 8-L.Havrisik 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. CLE 10 – LA 13
  • Q3 05:02 FG CLE (5:02) 7-D.Hopkins 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 13 – LA 13
  • Q3 00:45 TD LA (:45) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-D.Robinson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – LA 19
  • Q4 08:56 TD CLE (8:56) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 88-H.Bryant for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 19 – LA 20
  • Q4 03:51 TD LA (3:51) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 19 – LA 26
  • Q4 02:00 TD LA (2:00) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 19 – LA 33
  • Q4 00:42 SAF LA (:42) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (sack split by 91-K.Turner and 99-A.Donald). CLE 19 – LA 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 87%

    (6:33) 8-L.Havrisik 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (5:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 62 yards to LA 6, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 81-A.Trammell to LA 21 for 15 yards (88-H.Bryant).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 33%

    (2:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 7 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 88%

    (15:00) 8-L.Havrisik 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 35%

    (11:32) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to LA 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 7 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:57) 42-E.Evans punts 53 yards to CLE 29, Center-47-A.Ward. 11-J.Proche ran ob at CLE 44 for 15 yards (18-B.Skowronek).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 35%

    (8:28) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to LA 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (6:45) 42-E.Evans punts 59 yards to CLE 2, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-56-C.Rozeboom.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 9 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:39) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to LA 48, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 81-A.Trammell to CLE 41 for 11 yards (20-P.Strong; 37-Da.Bell). PENALTY on LA-6-T.Tomlinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 48. Penalty on LA-96-K.Thomas, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:47) 42-E.Evans punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 9 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 91%

    (2:11) 7-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 7 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (:05) 8-L.Havrisik 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:40) 42-E.Evans punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (5:02) 7-D.Hopkins 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:02) 42-E.Evans punts 64 yards to CLE 6, Center-47-A.Ward. 11-J.Proche to CLE 21 for 15 yards (6-T.Tomlinson; 84-H.Long).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 70 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:33) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 85-D.Njoku (2-R.Yeast).