4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 9

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(:05) 8-L.Havrisik 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +3.73 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 9, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model