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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 25

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-L.Havrisik 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.93 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model