Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 70

Los Angeles Rams 20 – Cleveland Browns 19

(7:02) 42-E.Evans punts 64 yards to CLE 6, Center-47-A.Ward. 11-J.Proche to CLE 21 for 15 yards (6-T.Tomlinson; 84-H.Long).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -3.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model