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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 68

Cleveland Browns 7 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 62 yards to LA 6, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 81-A.Trammell to LA 21 for 15 yards (88-H.Bryant).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 68, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model