4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 70

Cleveland Browns 19 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(2:33) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 85-D.Njoku (2-R.Yeast).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 28, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model