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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 50

Cleveland Browns 7 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(8:28) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to LA 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.77 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP