Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 97

Cleveland Browns 7 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to LA 48, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 81-A.Trammell to CLE 41 for 11 yards (20-P.Strong; 37-Da.Bell). PENALTY on LA-6-T.Tomlinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 48. Penalty on LA-96-K.Thomas, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -3.75 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.21 EP
62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 97, worth -6.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model