Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- ATL offense: -0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- QB edge to NO: Desmond Ridder (ATL) -0.070 vs Derek Carr (NO) -0.032 EPA/dropback (ATL starting Desmond Ridder in place of Taylor Heinicke)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 12
NO
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:14 FG NO (8:14) 19-B.Grupe 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. NO 3 – ATL 0
- Q1 01:59 TD ATL (1:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at ATL 8. 3-J.Bates for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 3 – ATL 6
- Q2 14:20 FG NO (14:20) 19-B.Grupe 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. NO 6 – ATL 7
- Q2 09:01 TD ATL (9:01) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – ATL 13
- Q2 03:58 FG NO (3:58) 19-B.Grupe 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. NO 9 – ATL 14
- Q3 03:31 FG NO (3:31) 19-B.Grupe 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. NO 12 – ATL 14
- Q4 10:02 TD ATL (10:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep right to 7-B.Robinson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 12 – ATL 20
- Q4 06:29 FG NO (6:29) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. NO 15 – ATL 21
- Q4 01:51 FG ATL (1:51) 6-Y.Koo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. NO 15 – ATL 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NO 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(13:13) 39-L.Hedley punts 46 yards to ATL 26, Center-49-Z.Wood. 20-D.Alford to ATL 35 for 9 yards (48-J.Gray; 46-A.Prentice).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 ATL 4th & 10 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(12:19) 13-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to NO 10, Center-49-L.McCullough. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at NO 16 for 6 yards (12-K.Hodge).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NO 4th & 7 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%
(8:14) 19-B.Grupe 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 ATL 4th & 2 at the 31Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 79%
(5:09) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder right end to NO 32 for -1 yards (6-M.Maye, 20-P.Werner).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 74%
(14:20) 19-B.Grupe 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NO 4th & 9 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 90%
(3:58) 19-B.Grupe 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 50%
(11:47) 13-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to NO 8, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 5-L.Bowden.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 92%
(6:29) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 21 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 92%
(1:51) 6-Y.Koo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 35 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 72%
(:30) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
See the full breakdown →
