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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 23

New Orleans Saints 6 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 19-B.Grupe 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.84 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 23, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 33, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model